Sorting through the SchoolBoard

There are 8 candidates for 3 at-large positions with the school board.  With so many candidates this race is fairly unpredictable.  School Board positions are technically unopposed but most candidates choose to allign themselves with a political party.

Incumbents-  Hunt (R)  Moon (D)  gotta love the website moon4schools

D Endorsed Hone Raney

R Endorsed Braunlich Costantino

Non-Endorsed Cooper, Volkstorf (Green party) but is that really an endorsement :-p

Predictions Moon, Hunt, Braunlich  Power of incumbency for the first two and Braunlich gets the nod with a triple advantage with prior experience on the board which also adds a natural constituency and name recognition, an endorsement from the Washington Post, and being the first candidate listed on the ballot alphabetically.

Everyone else is doing it… Senate predictions

Dusting off the crystal ball There are six close senate races I see

1st district R-Stall D-Miller Miller wins D pickup

6th district R-Rerras D-Northam Northam wins D pickup

28th district R-Stuart D-Pollard Stuart wins R keeps (close)

34th district R-Devolites Davis D-Petersen Petersen wins D pickup (close)

37th district R-Cuccinelli D-Oleszek Cuccinelli wins R keeps

39th district R-Obrien D-Barker Barker wins D pickup (work here)

I currently see a 21-19 D controlled senate

However, all of these races are in play and alot can change in three weeks. The best hope as an R is to focus on the 39th. Also, the 34th is closer than people think its trending back towards Devolites and there is still close to 1 million dollars to spend the last 20 days.

Metro Wars

Interesting developments about competing metro funding plans

The newest plan calls for new parking hikes and keeps bus rates flat.

The original plan moderately increased fares for parking, trains and buses

The new plan is much more progressive since bus riders have low incomes and metro riders are more affluent.  Outside my personal bias of being a suburban metro rider, I still think the original plan is better because all users of metro will share the burden of new fees.  I’m still waiting to see exactly why new funds are needed.  Previously, the shortfall gap magically decreased by several tens of millions of dollars unexpectedly.

Thoughts from the Americans for Prosperity (AP) Conference

Over 1500 people and 400 Virginians attended the first annual AP conference.  AP works to preserve liberty and freedom by limiting the scope of government and trusting that in most cases individuals can do a better job than government intervention.  One of the highlights of the conference was hearing from seven of the Republican Presidential candidates.

Giuliani gave the best speech and focused on results that he had improving government efficiency and reducing taxes in New York

McCain came in second and gave a speech about the need to eliminate earmarks and other wasteful spending.  Its easy to talk about eliminating taxes. The hard part is being willing to find and eliminate ineffective government programs and McCain did a good job addressing the harder issue.

Romney tossed out a bunch of red meat topics about eliminating taxes but didn’t seem to have a solid grasp on the practicality and impact of his proposals.

Huckabee did an ok job but he didn’t do anything to distinguish himself from the three candidates listed above.

Thompson struggled in his speech(es).  They were unorganized and he struggled to provide a common theme.

Ron Paul did a good job until he proposed eliminating the income tax and jumped off the deep end by not providing an alternative to lost revenue.  He also continued to focus on the abortion issue which seems strange given his overall libertarian platform.

Overall it was interesting to watch the dynamic of the conference between being a partisan Republican event or more of a Libertarian event.  I think a nice balance was achieved and AP will continue to be a strong voice for fiscal conservative, rugged individualists like myself.

In Maryland its deja vu Virginia Style

So our friendly neighbors to the north are facing an imminent budget showdown

Governor O’Malley has proposed various tax and fee restructuring while making “draconian” cuts to government programs and introducing slots

The republicans have a different point of view and will release details of their plan later today

One quote is particularly interesting

Besides Busch, those counseling delay include Comptroller Peter Franchot (D), the state’s chief tax collector. Franchot said in a recent letter to lawmakers that the volatility of the economy is making revenue projections for the next fiscal year uncertain. He said his office hopes to have a more reliable forecast by December.

“This is the biggest tax change in probably 40 years,” Franchot said yesterday.

“Because it’s so complicated and large, we should take a cautious approach and examine the governor’s proposal from every perspective. That argues against a special session, which by definition is rushed.”

All of this sounds eerily familiar to what happened in Virginia a few years ago with governor Warner.  All  I can say is Maryland don’t be suckered into the same bogus deal that Virginia got during a budget “crisis” situation.

One other other small item Chris Matthew talking about listening in his new book?!?! oh the irony…

40 days and counting

Yeah its 40 days and counting. Couple random things

Who is the target audience for all of these flyers, and youtube ads. The majority of them from both parties are negative and poorly made. I guess the facts back up negative campaigning but if I was an undecided I would be turned off by them. Specifically the ads “made” by both state parties have been terrible. Over the next 40 days the amount of campaign literature will only increase.

What small role does blogging play. Interestingly enough when I read certain blogs that attack certain candidates it actually makes me want to support the ‘target’ more even if prior to that I didn’t really have an opinion on a race. Which raises a larger issue. Since the campaigns have been so negative I guess it makes sense that more and more people are voting against someone or their tactics instead of for someone. Thats a unhealthy trend and sets up a combative political environment during the legislative session. Once again I fault both parties who have setup an us vs them mentality instead of focusing on why you should vote for them instead of against the other guys.

Finally some background on the 34th district race between Petersen and Devolites-Davis. Apparently, Petersen was ahead in the latest poll for the FIRST time the entire cycle. He is still down significantly in terms of cash on hand. This is arguably the most competitive senate race in Virginia.  There is still almost 1 million dollars to spend and thats before the state parties. I am glad I don’t live in the district. Prepare for the onslaught people of Fairfax and Vienna.

A disturbing trend in government

It seems that more and more government entities are experiencing wild swings in budget projections and shortfalls.  Virginia has gone from multi-billion deficits to surpluses and back to deficits again.  The Dulles metro project has grown by almost a billion dollars but recently has magically “found” 300 million in cost savings to salvage federal funding.  Finally, metro has “revised” its operating budget deficit from around 170 million to 140 million and adjusted its planned rate hike after widespread public outcry.

My main question through all of this is why isn’t the most efficient budget proposed originally.  How can people randomly “find” millions of dollars in cost savings…. is it any wonder that people mistrust government to handle money responsibily.  When you are dealing with other peoples money there is no incentive to keep costs low.

Its really about the need for real community

As the illegal immigration debate continues to swirl and press and attention is given to the most extreme on either side the underlying cause of this debate is being swept under the rug IMHO. Additionally, there is a fairly easy solution to this problem.

But first, some things need to be done It seems a good first step is to check for immigration status once someone is arrested or if someone applies for a job. Another point; almost everyone has or knows someone who has hired some household help from a “center” at one point or another. (But thats another topic)

I personally believe that this whole thing isn’t really about illegal immigration. Its really about the gentrification and change of neighborhoods. For better or worse its really about property values, feeling “comfortable”, maintaining certain “standards”, and ensuring areas aren’t “overrun”. This is true across America and not to call out Arlington too much, but theres a reason people use Route 50 as the dividing line. Now, this might be a little harsh or extreme but remember this is the same area of Home Owners Associations that get in your face if you dare to put a satallite dish up or paint your shutters a different color. This is the same area that has marathon meetings about school boundaries and in the end has several districts that aren’t even contiguous (Yes Arlington I’m calling you out here) This is the same area that has a small group of people that will have complaints about almost anything and will let you know about it…. It’s always easy to frame a debate as us verses them. Heck, thats what the dark side of politics is about; choosing wedge issues that pit normal honest people against each other.

But there is hope and it brings me to the solution. The solution is building community spirit. I know it sounds like an elementary school term. But, it actually works. Most people are moving to this area for a better life and want to get along. When there are problems it is usually because people don’t know any better and they could be remedied if people would simply start talking to one another. Sure, there are some challenges such as language and cultural barriers and there are some rare instances of real abuse. But, in general basic communication is all that is needed.

This is governing?

It seems that more and more politicians are proving that they really aren’t cut out for governing and are more suited towards campaigning.  This problem is compounded in Virginia since there is an election every year and elected politicians spend enormous amounts of time supporting candidates running for political office instead of focusing on actual governance.

The state of Virginia is facing a budget crunch due to the partial collapse of the housing market.  (First problem not seeing the warning signs of the collapse or more basically assuming the meteoric increase of tax receipts would continue unabated)

So in response to the budget crunch Governor Tim Kaine has proposed new spending proposals and initatives.  The real kicker is to pay for these new programs the governor has proposed taking money from the rainy day fund.  Additionally, Governor Kaine is complaining that Republicans don’t want to fund pre-k and is using this as an election issue.

The republicans aren’t off the hook either.  They are criticizing the governor for his irresponsible fiscal policy (which accomplished nothing besides political points)  and then instead of proposing their own pre-k plan or recommending government areas to be reduced they are conveniently silent on what should be done.

This is governing?  No, this is campaigning which hurts the Commonwealth instead of looking for the common good.  To fix this problem, people need to hold politicians accountable, become more independent minded, or at the very least pay more attention.  Along these lines Governor Kaine is participating in a blog question and answer session over at Raising Kaine today and the questions are quite good.  I am hopeful that the Governor will provide specific answers and avoid generalities or even worse avoiding certain questions.

Is it all worth it?

As the time continues to tick down towards the 2007 November elections the blogosphere has grown increasingly partisan.  Personal attacks are increasing and many “arguments” are based on pure emotion and elementary school tactics instead of logic and facts.  I was beginning to come to the conclusion that it wasn’t worth coming back.

However, there are still some on both sides of the aisle that are able to rise above the din and make logical arguments and even disagree without losing their cool.  Additionally major initiatives are being constantly discussed and debated with little notice by the general public.  So I think it still is worth it and starting next week I’ll try and do my small part to increase the discussion and tone down the rhetoric.