Edwards in Iowa !?!?
I know I know stick with me for a bit…
Lets go back to 2004 Dean and Gephart are the frontrunners they attack each other opening the door for Kerry and to a lesser extent Edwards
2008 Hillary and Obama are the frontrunners they attack each other….
Hillary and Obama both are relying on unreliable voters first time women and younger caucus goers. Factor in the holidays and the potential for bad weather and these groups become even more unreliable
Edwards also has a double advantage of having run before and being tied or ahead amongst prior Caucus goers and older Iowans
The race is basically a tossup amongst the frontrunners. It will come down to what the Richardson (10%) and Biden (5%) and to lesser extent Dodd and Kucinich supporters go to. Their decisions will probably be influenced by the supporters of the other candidates. Another advantage for Edwards because people are the most familiar with him and his caucus goers are the most experienced.